Profitable Parlays - Fact Or Fiction?
There are countless 'handicapping services' available of providing people who have parlays. They will tout win rates similar to one of the most impressive straight wager cappers. Needless to say, so as to they refer to money line parlays as 'safe' bets. On many of these sites you may even have the privilege of working with some sort of royalty in neuro-scientific parlay wagering. Regrettably, thousands will undoubtedly be fooled by this fiction again this football season.
The fact is that exotic wagers keep sports books running a business. Next time you're in Vegas take a look at the discarded tickets you see spread all over the place. It's safe to assume that you will find nearly all these losers are made up of such bets placed on both sports and racing. Of all the sucker bets available to sports bettors, the parlay is king. Bettors are lured in by the promise of an enormous payout while disregarding the point that there is no reasonable expectation of any return on investment.
The home edge on a typical straight wager at -110 is 4.5%. Weighed against many table games this is really a fairly high percentage. Lots of table games and slots provide a better value for the common bettor placing a random wager. However, everybody knows that betting on sports isn't anything like throwing a pair of dice at the trunk wall.
Chance is important in everything the house provides. There are also steps that may be taken to reduce the edge in only about every game. Nowhere in the casino are elements such as for example skill and preparation more useful compared to the sports book. The edge on a straight wager could be reversed in the bettors favor by utilizing statistics and expertise in an activity. However, a double digit house edge can never be overcome in the long run.
# of Teams | Actual Odds | Typical Payout | House Edge
2 | 3/1 | 2.6/1 | 10.00%
3 | 7/1 | 6/1 | 12.50%
4 | 15/1 | 10/1 | 31.25%
5 | 31/1 | 20/1 | 34.38%
6 | 63/1 | 40/1 | 35.94%
7 | 127/1 | 75/1 | 40.63%
8 | 255/1 | 150/1 | 41.02%
9 | 511/1 | 300/1 | 41.21%
10 | 1023/1 | 700/1 | 31.54%
As you can plainly see every parlay it is possible to possibly bet has a whopping 10% house edge or better. Such casino advantages tend to be more in line with keno, plus they are equally impossible to overcome in the long run. There is no mystery surrounding the world of parlays. Bettors are attracted to risking a small amount of money for large payouts. The games which are frequently played in the casino are slots that offer thousands or even millions in progressive jackpots. The mentality of the bettors is 'Go big, or go home.' The casino is actually happy to oblige as millions of bettors go back home with nothing within their pockets every year.
It is fair to assume that the largest amount of losing bets a book accepts are exotic wagers of add up to or double the home minimum. It is because most bettors don't have a meaningful bankroll reserve for sports betting. Given that they don't believe they can make any real cash by placing $25-50 on a few games per week they continue taking parlays for $20 or less. Using this method they essentially ensure a significant loss by the finish of the season. Meanwhile, should they only placed straight wagers at that same level they might limit their potential losses to a few units at most.
Many bettors assume that because they are keeping the size of their bets low they're not taking on a significant risk. This analysis is flawed because it ignores several factors. Most of all, it really is my experience that a lot of bettors do not place just one parlay weekly. In football this implies a minimum of 34 parlays are placed during the regular season. In baseball that number can easily exceed 100. With a minimal unit bet this is still a dangerous amount of wagers to place with this type of high house edge. For example, when you are placing only 5 team parlays your expectation should be to lose about $35 for each and every $100 you wager. As the number of bets you place increases it is inevitable that you will hit that $100 mark many times over.
Using parlays as a side bet will most likely result in upping your losses or erasing any profits you managed to make on straight wagers. In '09 2009, I had litigant who broke even after increasing his bankroll by 45% using my picks. He were able to do that by placing 'small' side bets including parlays, reverses, and teasers. This is an expensive lesson to learn especially when you take into account I issued a similar warning to him.
If you are likely to follow his lead and continue using parlays I have a few pointers that will help you over time. First of all, the very best value of all parlays is actually the three team parlay. The difference between the house edge on a 2 & 3 teamer is insignificant, however the payout is a lot more than twice as much. Invest trang pq88 at the graph you should understand why I'd never bet a parlay of 4 teams or more. However, if you are going to make this investment listed below are two useful tips:
If you are going to bet a 4 or 5 5 team parlay, always make it 6 and even 10. The difference between the house edge to add one or two 2 more teams is at 5 percentage points and the payout is significantly higher for both options. The home edge on a 10 teamer is virtually the same as a 4 team parlay, but the actual probability of hitting it are over 1,000 to at least one 1.
If you are going to throw your money away chasing huge payouts on 7, 8, and 9 team parlays then just bet the 10 teamer. The House edge is about 10 points less than all three of these bets also it typically pays about 700/1.
Setting reasonable goals and being patient while working to achieve them is the sign of a profitable professional bettor. Greed should be kept in check to become successful. In this regard, every bettor has two options. It is possible to chase high returns while assuming plenty of unnecessary risk. Or it is possible to minimize your exposure to a few units while maintaining a reasonable expectation to increase your bankroll by 50%...The decision is yours.